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Where our numbers come from

Every source behind RetireFromTrades estimates and guides, what we use each one for, how much we trust it, and the sources we treat as low reliability.

Every number on RetireFromTrades comes from one of the sources below, or from our own arithmetic on them, which we label as our estimate. This page lists each source, what we use it for, and when we last checked it. The strongest evidence we have for small trade businesses is BizBuySell's closed-sale data for HVAC and plumbing. For roofing, no published sold-deal benchmark exists, and we say so wherever it matters.

How the sources feed the calculator is on how we calculate value. Every multiple our calculator uses is illustrative until a trade's numbers are verified.

How much we trust each kind of source

Not every published number deserves the same weight. These are the reliability ratings we use:

Kind of sourceExampleReliability for owners like you
Closed sale prices reported by brokersBizBuySell sold benchmarksHigh for small deals
Public company deal disclosuresKingsway press releasesHigh, but only two to three deals
Letters of intent, not closingsAxialMedium
Large disclosed deals and survey mediansCapstone, IBBA, GF DataMedium, skewed to bigger deals
Asking prices on listingsBizBuySell roofing listingsLow for pricing
Adviser or vendor marketing pagesSofer, Chisel, Portus, PeakCross-check only
Public company trading multiplesKPMG home servicesNot applicable to private small firms

A few notes behind those ratings. BizBuySell's sold figures are actual closed prices reported by brokers, but they lean toward small deals and miss private sales that were never reported. Asking prices run above sale prices: BizBuySell's own HVAC data shows sale prices at about 0.92 to 0.94 of asking. Disclosed-deal averages come mostly from large deals, so a 14x headline rarely applies to a $3M company. Adviser pages are used only to check a range or set an upper bound, never as the only support for a number.

Market size and owner age

Buyer activity

Valuation benchmarks

Trade drivers

State licensing

These are the primary sources for the license and qualifier rules that change what happens to your company when you leave.

These explain why we work the way we do. We summarize them on how we make money. Nothing here is legal advice.

Sources to avoid or treat as low reliability

Many pages that rank for "roofing EBITDA multiple" or "HVAC valuation multiple" are marketing content from sell-side advisers or programmatic sites that cite each other or show no sample. We read them only as evidence of what owners are being told, never as benchmarks. Examples we opened:

  • Lightning Path Partners quotes HVAC at 4x to 7x, plumbing at 3.5x to 6.5x and roofing at 3x to 6x with no sample shown.
  • DealSeam quotes HVAC at 4x to 7x EBITDA from its own benchmarks.
  • Main Street Wealth quotes roofing at 5.5x to 7.5x EBITDA with no source.

If someone quotes you a multiple, ask where it comes from: closed sales, letters of intent or asking prices, and for what size of company.

What we do not do

  • We do not cite a page we have not opened.
  • We do not mix up asking prices, letters of intent and closed sales without saying which is which.
  • We do not take payment from any source, buyer or adviser listed here.

Change log

  • November 5, 2026: Page published with every source behind engine 2.0.0 and the site's guides, each checked in November 2026.

Found a source that is out of date or wrong? Tell us through contact and we will log the fix on how we calculate value.

Talk to a person

Email support@retirefromtrades.com. A person reads every message, usually within 2 business days. Found a mistake on a page? Tell us which page and what is wrong, and we will fix it and log the change.

Want to see the method on your own numbers? Pick your trade and start the free estimate.

This is an educational estimate, not an appraisal. RetireFromTrades gives an illustrative range based on what you told us and on general market information. It is not a formal business valuation or appraisal, and it is not an offer to buy your business. We are not a business broker, M&A adviser, CPA, lawyer or financial adviser, and nothing here is legal, tax, accounting or investment advice. Real offers depend on your actual financial records, buyer diligence, deal terms and market conditions, and can be higher or lower than this range. Before you make any decision, talk to a licensed professional. If you ask, we can introduce you to an independent licensed business broker; we do not broker, negotiate or take part in any sale.